–Chris Anderson, How to download eBooks: Click Download, wait 5 seconds and Click Skip This Ad to download ebook, Keywords: The problem, Nassim explains, is that we place too much weight on the odds that past events will repeat (diligently trying to follow the path of the “millionaire next door,” when unrepeatable chance is a better explanation). Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. . . easy to dip into.”—Financial Times
And so we tell ourselves simple stories to explain complex thing we don’t–and, most importantly, can’t–know. 2 0 obj
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This site does not store any files on its server. (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Fragility ebook epub/pdf/mobi/azw3. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, and The Bed of Procrustes. PDF, Previous post: The Crossing (Harry Bosch), © 2015 Free Kindle Books – All Rights Reserved
Our brains are wired for narrative, not statistical uncertainty.
Or, as he puts it, “History does not crawl, it jumps.” Our assumptions grow out of the bell-curve predictability of what he calls “Mediocristan,” while our world is really shaped by the wild powerlaw swings of “Extremistan.”, In full disclosure, I’m a long admirer of Taleb’s work and a few of my comments on drafts found their way into the book. Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, “On Robustness and Fragility,” which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Instead, the really important events are rare and unpredictable. <>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text/ImageB/ImageC/ImageI] >>/MediaBox[ 0 0 595.2 841.92] /Contents 4 0 R/Group<>/Tabs/S/StructParents 0>>
I, too, look at the world through the powerlaw lens, and I too find that it reveals how many of our assumptions are wrong. . epub, The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11.
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He calls them Black Swans, which is a reference to a 17th century philosophical thought experiment. The Black Swan is a landmark book—itself a black swan. x��]s�6�=3��7� ��G'�ۉ��\�\�>d� [���%��\_��a��zs�D$��~����~s���g�ޝ������*�zr���?l�8����>��������n���ޟgg�oߜ\�LJQ�����72+��d֖�(�LBv����"��?>�}�u��d��z�惞���7J���*%�FO��J%�:{Z�}��?�ݑ� ��]�����_g2X�?�Ȳu�af�����,;�|�����Yq����6��w�g9c\��J���Z��e�*����ݭ�f���s5���l ?��z�-�粝}��٫~��� ���H�U!�e�e��_g?f�Y�(�Y8c���V�2_����l������Q�Z" { ��=�7@�
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nk�4��/`g�:���0�r��U�_���|y�FY����hh��4���oٓT[��`r�c�DOK����`wz�d�~ҳ���m�ϷS�Ej*��x���Ub���^ѵ��B���a��7���_�7��w`. Read More: Follow Twitter | Review sách hay | Top 10 Su That | Học Forex, The Subtle Art of Not Giving a F*ck: A Counterintuitive Approach to Living a Good Life, Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Old School (Book 10), The Ultimate Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, Uncle Vanya: Scenes from Country Life in Four Acts, The Wars of the Jews Or The History of the Destruction of Jerusalem. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. The Black Swan: the impact of the highly improbable. In Europe all anyone had ever seen were white swans; indeed, “all swans are white” had long been used as the standard example of a scientific truth. “Idiosyncratically brilliant.”—Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times
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mobi, The Black Swan is a landmark book—itself a black swan. The truth is that we have no idea why stock markets go up or down on any given day, and whatever reason we give is sure to be grossly simplified, if not flat out wrong. Chris Anderson is editor-in-chief of Wired magazine and the author of The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More. “The most prophetic voice of all.”—GQ Nassim Nicholas Taleb first made this argument in Fooled by Randomness, an engaging look at the history and reasons for our predilection for self-deception when it comes to statistics. We’re still doing it. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.”. 1 0 obj
Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. ebook, We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy.”—The Wall Street Journal AZW3, endobj
The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.”—The New York Times Book Review, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Fragility. %����
Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb “Hugely enjoyable—compelling . “Engaging . Now, in The Black Swan: the Impact of the Highly Improbable, he focuses on that most dismal of sciences, predicting the future. This is an interesting read which is very abstract in nature. The book has made me think in a very abstract way in looking at past events that happened and trying to work out if we could ... Nassim Nicholas Taleb Two contrasting summaries: Summary 1. download free ebook, endobj
. Impossible to calculate, or at least they were until 1697, when explorers found Cygnus atratus in Australia. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb. . . Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur?
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